Brookhaven, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS61 KOKX 282313
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
713 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat is expected mid-late week.  Extreme Heat Watches
have been issued.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
H5 ridging is already in the process of building
across the Gulf region as of Sunday afternoon, with guidance
projecting the ridge to build north-northeast thanks to deepening
Pacific cutoff through the coming week.  As previous forecaster
noted, heights reach 2-2.5 standard deviations above normal by
Wednesday, just as it crests near the Great Lakes.  With this ridge
in place, and a modified subtropical airmass, will be looking at the
potential for a prolonged period of dangerous heat mid to late week.

There is a bit of uncertainty with the dominant factors being
the placement/amplification of the ridge axis and as such the
moisture profile. GFS and its ensembles remain the slightly more
amplified/eastern outlier (22-24C at H8) while other extended
deterministic/ensemble guidance is not as warm along the
immediate coast. Dewpoint spreads still remain on the order of
3-6F mainly with their typical medium range uncertainty.
However, even on the lower 25th-10th percentile, dewpoints are
still in the upper 60s to near 70F over a nearly 72 hour
period.

Even with this uncertainty recent run to run consistency
support a potentially dangerous heat situation with only a few
degrees difference between potential Advisory and Warning level
heat indices Wednesday through at least Friday. The rising
surface dewpoints will also limit overnight relief. Given these
factors, have hoisted an Extreme Heat Watch for all areas
Wednesday through Friday. This could be a dangerous situation
especially for sensitive groups.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds in through the TAF period.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. An isolated shower is possible
this evening, but the majority of the activity will remain well
north of the terminals, and should dissipate shortly after 00z.

IFR to locally LIFR conditions are also possible tonight,
especially for GON, ISP, BDR, and JFK. These conditions, if they
develop, should quickly improve around 12-13z. There is a
chance for IFR at LGA, EWR, TEB, HPN, TEB, and SWF, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF.

SE-S winds will weaken this evening, becoming light and variable
tonight. Light flow after 12z becomes SE late morning into the
afternoon, potentially veering to the S late in the day. Wind
speeds will be 10 kt or less Monday afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR possible from approx 08z-12z Monday for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.
Chance that IFR does not occur at KJFK tonight, or that start/end
timing of IFR is off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Monday Night: VFR. Chance of MVFR or IFR conditions, mainly
east of the NYC metro terminals late.

.Tuesday: VFR. Chance of a showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
late in the afternoon and evening. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

.Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the
afternoon, especially near the coast.

.Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with
MVFR late in the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on the non
ocean waters through Thu. Wind gusts reach around 20 kt on the
ocean waters late day Tue and Wed, but should remain below SCA
criteria. Seas approach 5 ft on the ocean in a S flow late Wed
into Wed night.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low Monday with 1-2
ft swell sets with period varying between 5-10 s and onshore
winds at or below 10 kt. The risk increases to moderate on
Tuesday, with south winds 10-15kts in an increasing swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 100/1963
KBDR: 95/1963
KNYC: 100/1901
KLGA: 97/2018
KJFK: 102/1963
KISP: 96/1964

July 2:
KEWR: 102/1966
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966

July 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 77/2018
KBDR: 73/2013
KNYC: 79/2018
KLGA: 79/2018
KJFK: 75/1968
KISP: 73/2025

July 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014

July 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MD
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MD